Trouble in Turn2

A brief history of the #40 car. Once upon a time there was a driver named Sterling Marlin. He was hired to drive a racecar full time for Chip Ganassi/Felix Sabates Racing (This was before they changed their name to Chip Ganassi/Felix Sabates Mostly Riding Around). And he drove quite well. He won 2 races in 2001 and 2002. He finished 3rd in the points in ‘01 and was even leading the point standings for most of ‘02. He drove the #40 Coors Light car, which at the time was the organization’s flagship team. Unfortunately his 2002 was ended early by a wreck at Kansas.

The years went by and while Marlin was not quite the same, he still was a solid driver, holding his own at most tracks and running quite well at others. Despite his serious injury, he was still a top 20 driver and managed to keep the #40 car there as well.

One day in 2005 Felix Sabates came along and asked Marlin to stop driving the #40 Cup car. He explained that Coors Light didn’t believe old people drank beer anymore. Since Sterling was old, he could no longer identify with this bourgeoisie of beer drinkers. A fresh, young driver named Daivd Stremme would be the one that the public would look to when thirsty. Sabates also offered Marlin the chance to “hang out”, run some Busch races (note: at that time old people still drank Busch beer) and collect a six-figure check. Marlin was so blown away by Sabates’ offer that he joined MB2 sports and drove fulltime in the Cup series in 2006 and 2007 (based on reports he made much more than six figures).

• Aric Almirola will drive the #8 car for DEI next year. Almirola is definitely talented and, depending on Martin Truex’s 2009 status, becomes DEI’s #1 or #2 driver. He’s certainly more talented than Regan Smith and Paul Menard. What I can’t figure out is why Almirola hasn’t been entered into any Nationwide races this year? Even if the cost is too much for DEI to bear, there has to be another Nationwide team they could farm him out to for seat time. That would be like the Yankees telling Joba Chamberlain, “We think you will be our #1 starting pitcher in 2009. To prepare for this high profile role, we will have you sporadically start 10 times this year. The rest of the time we’d like you to pitch batting practice and have bullpen sessions.”

  NASCAR will surely tout it as a victory for diversity, but I prefer to look at it as a good young driver who has paid his dues in the lower ranks including the Truck series that earned his chance. Whether that chance was accelerated by the Drive for Diversity program, I don’t fully know.

• Speaking of DEI, NASCAR impounded the #1 car of Martin Truex Jr. Since it’s a new DEI car, it came with all the latest DEI technology. Technology like a radar for where 17th place is on the track, an in-car #3 diecast retail store, and a gas pedal that wouldn’t go all the way to the floor. Reports that Truex wanted to drive one of Haas-CNC or Penske’s backup cars are completely false as well.

• I saw Baby Mama last weekend at the cheap theater. I’m a big fan of Amy Poehler and for three dollars it was defintely worth watching. If you are a fan of 30 Rock, you should enjoy this movie too. Tina Fey plays essentially her same role as Liz Lemon on 30 Rock: mostly serious, having to clean up others’ mistakes but also free to stray into comedy as well. That allowed Poehler , who I think is one of the funniest female actors around, to shine as the white trash surrogate. If you’re looking for a night to mentally unplug, it’s a good choice.

This weekend TNT brings back their Wide Open coverage for the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona. More racing and fewer commercials sounds pretty good. What is even better is a good race at a fun track under the lights and 100 miles shorter than the Daytona 500 in February. It all adds up to one of the best race packages of the season. The Pepsi Coke Zero 400 is almost always an exciting race. Sure there was the monsoon of ought five that pushed the finish past midnight on the west coast, but most races are filled with crashes, daring passes for the lead (the lead!), and heck even some pretty cool one-off paint schemes.

And there’s something else about the plate tracks to like too. It’s the little rivalries at restrictor plate races that add the extra juice. They are four races that have very little bearing on the rest of the season, but teams often take more pride in their plate programs. The current top dogs, Gibbs and Hendrick could offer a great battle this year. So far Toyota, and more specifically Gibbs Racing have dominated the restrictor plate tracks in 2008. One win, four top fives and 57% of all the laps led at Daytona and Talladega. That’s pretty dominant. And that is why I think Hendrick Motorsports will be up to the challenge. Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr have all won at Daytona and are all very good in the draft. Not all of the cars will be around at the end, but that’s just part of the excitement.

What Happened Last Year

Gibbs teammates Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin wrecked each other while running 1-2 early in the race. That led to some bickering in the garage. Meanwhile Jamie McMurray edged Kurt and Kyle Busch for his first win since 2002. It was the closest finish in Daytona history (.005 seconds).

Five Drivers Who Like Daytona

Dale Earnhardt Jr won the 2001 Pepsi 400 and the 2004 Daytona 500. He has 6 top 5’s and 10 top 10’s in 17 starts.

Tony Stewart has two summer wins and has led 531 laps in ten races. That includes 151 of 160 at the 2005 race. He has 6 top 5’s and 10 top 10’s in 19 starts. He also is the only driver with a driver rating above 100 for the last seven Daytona races (108.1)

Jeff Gordon has six wins, most among active drivers. Gordon has recently adopted a “wait and see” approach, which worked at both Talladega events last year and almost paid off again this spring.

Jimmie Johnson has often served as Gordon’s wing man on mad dashes to the front late in races. But Johnson is perfectly capable of winning races himself. He has the highest average running position (9.8) of all drivers over the last seven races, meaning he is always in the lead pack.

Matt Kenseth owns a 92.4 driver rating and has led laps in four of the last five races at Daytona. He has scored 4 top 5’s and 12 top 10’s in his career at restrictor plate tracks.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Ryan Newman His Daytona 500 win was not a fluke. Penske has provided strong cars for Daytona and Talladega and Newman and Kurt Busch work well together.

Chump: Carl Edwards Edwards is good in the draft, but has lost his patience at times and that can be costly.

Sleeper: Elliott Sadler When it comes to restrictor plate races, Sadler is excellent at avoiding wrecks, picking the right lane and being around at the end to pick up a nice finish.

Who will win?

Hendrick and Penske cars will surely be strong with a splash of RCR mixed in (watch out for Clint Bowyer). Matt Kenseth and Jamie McMurray are typically strong at Daytona, but Ford is mired in a mini-funk right now. All of these teams will be in the lead pack, but who will win the race? Joe Gibbs. Seriously, take your pick of driver. Denny Hamlin led 32 laps and may have had the best car at the Daytona 500 if not for a pit road accident. Kyle Busch led 86 laps and could, and did, go anywhere he wanted to on the track. Tony Stewart wasn’t as good during the day, but came alive at the end of the race when the sun went down, led 16 laps and finished 3rd. The same pattern held true at Talladega when Hamlin and Stewart seemed able to do whatever they wanted at the front of the pack and Kyle Busch overcame early problems to pop up late and win. Fans of variety, surprise and parity turn away now. Kyle Busch is going to win again. Just because the winner might not be a surprise, the race should be anything but dull.

Have you ever had a friend that no matter what they do can’t seem to get out of their own way? Maybe they get a raise at work, but then blow it on a new TV they can’t afford? You can’t help but slap your forehead and cover your eyes. In NASCAR that friend is Dodge. For every triumph, there seems to be self-inflicted Dodge has won three of the last six Cup races. When you throw in Kasey Kahne’s All-Star win, that’s 4 in the last seven, which is more than the manufacturer won in all of 2007. On paper, things look pretty good for Dodge and its teams. Of course reality tells a different story, and to anyone that has followed NASCAR in recent years knows how self-sabotaging the Dodge teams can be. Even during high spots, there are more problems than positives.

The big news this week is that Chip Ganassi is putting the #40 car up on cinder blocks for the rest of 2008, meaning Dario Franchitti’s Cup career will also see weeds and grass sprout around it while it sits in the backyard at Ganassi’s shop. The lack of sponsorship was the final blow for the car. While Franchitti entered NASCAR with great credentials like an Indy 500 win and an IRL championship (not to mention the Judd marketing factor), it’s pretty easy to see why companies passed on Ganassi. Their NASCAR teams stink. One Cup win since 2002, no driver has ever made the Chase and since 2005 no driver has scored more than 10 top 10’s in a season. In the middle of 2005 Ganassi announced tentative plans to expand to four cars. It never happened because Jamie McMurray successfully voided his contract and moved to Roush-Fenway, but at the time Ganassi did have enough sponsorship for all four teams. Of course that was before the mortgage crisis (remember Home 1-2-3?) and the overall economic slowdown. It’s a little surprising Franchitti was willing to come to NASCAR despite the lack of funding.

In 2006 Kasey Kahne won a series high 6 races and made the Chase for Evernham Motorsports. At the same time teammate Jeremy Mayfield struggled to stay inside the top 35, was ultimately fired in midseason and threatened legal action. The ugliness only intensified with the inappropriate relationship between Ray Evernham and Erin Crocker. That ultimately played a part in the team’s abysmal 2007 season where the team realized halfway through that their season was wasted due using incorrect data to build their cars. Things are just now returning to normal, almost a year and a half later.

How about Penske Racing? In the summer of 2005 they signed one of the biggest free agents, Kurt Busch, to replace the retiring Rusty Wallace. It was the perfect driver to build upon a successful 2005 season that saw two of the three Penske cars make the Chase. Instead Penske chopped the #77 team (not due to sponsorship) and contracted back to two teams. To make things worse, the Penske teams spent the majority of the offseason and the spring trying to run the older Intrepid instead of the current Charger model. The result was-you guessed it-a wasted season. After two seasons of two cars the #77 finally returned to the track this year, but is again struggling as a new team. Had it been running continuously, the team might be a lot further along and more competitive with the other top teams at Chevrolet, Toyota and Ford.

All of the teams at Dodge (don’t forget Petty Enterprises, who is in serious danger of becoming irrelevant) have struggled in the last five years. It’s fitting given the unstable nature of Dodge. Daimler sold the company in 2007 and they are still struggling to compete. Things could only get worse for Dodge on the competition side. With factory support an unknown quantity, there is no real hope for drastic improvement on the track. And based on some of the rumors, top drivers like Ryan Newman and Juan Pablo Montoya could have other opportunities with different teams next year as well. While the wins might increase with Kasey Kahne and Kurt Busch, the overall picture in the Dodge camp is pretty gloomy.

After another disappointing and undeserved finish for Tony Stewart and the #20 team, it’s easy to wonder what’s wrong this year. The truth is, while some of their finishes have been lower than usual, Stewart rarely wins before June. In his 32 career wins, he has only won four races prior to June. In the last five seasons, he has won 12 races in the summer months and 5 wins each in July and August. Whatever the reason, Tony Stewart really loves the summer. Why? It’s probably a combination of many things. He’s excellent at many of the tracks like road courses, Daytona, Chicago, Indianapolis and Loudon. Maybe the hotter weather caters more to his driving style. It might be that Gibbs does more testing in the spring and he reaps the results in the summer (that was certainly the case in 2005), or that they experiment a little more at the start of seasons with the knowledge that the #20 car is good enough to be in contention at the end of the year.

While Stewart is exceptional in the summer months, other drivers like Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch have also traditionally hit their strides when the sun comes out. Here is a breakdown of the drivers with at least three wins in the summer since 2003 [note: due to some minor schedule tweaks, some races have changed months from year to year. I used the following breakdown. June (Dover, Pocono, Michigan, Sonoma). July (Daytona, Loudon, Chicago, Pocono). August (Indianapolis, Watkins Glen, Michigan, Bristol, Darlington/California).

I’m not sure why, but I think there’s a problem with my table, keep scrolling. Sorry

Time permitting I hope to delve further into trends like this over a whole season. Looking at things like teams or drivers that peak at the right time, most successful drivers in the Chase, etc.

It’s your turn, tell me what the numbers mean to you. Are you Smoke fans excited for July? Can Kenseth and Kurt Busch restart their seasons? Why do some drivers thrive in the heat? Or just tell me it’s hogwash.

For the first 270 laps, Sunday’s race at New Hampshire was pretty tame. The leaders maintained comfortable leads with ease, the top ten positions didn’t change much and barring problems, cars were pretty much locked into a comfortable position and no one was passing. Then a caution came out when Jamie McMurray plowed through Dale Earnhardt Jr and suddenly all hell broke loose. The top drivers pitted while eight other cars stayed out, led by Kurt Busch. Tony Stewart, the dominant car for the day, pitted for two tires and was relegated to 14th on the restart. With one caution plus a pending storm it was pretty obvious that the final results had been turned upside down.

That set up a wild finish, but it wasn’t done yet. Kurt Busch jumped out on the restart, but had to battle lapped car Robby Gordon and nearly hit the outside wall. A few laps later Sam Hornish spilt Clint Bowyer to bring out the caution. Juan Pablo Montoya took the chance to controversy.

“[Busch] hit me under caution, he hit me under green and I retaliated. Did I go a little bit too far retaliating? Yeah. I told them[NASCAR officials] the only reason I did that was I was defending myself.

Somehow Busch tried to play coy and absolve himself from blame.

I got a run on him earlier and I got on the outside and he kind of kept coming up a little bit. I didn’t turn down into him and just barely touched his quarter panel. Then I got by him in three and four and he run me up the race track in the left rear. Then we came to that caution flag and he thought he beat me to the caution flag and I was just trying to get around the 40 (Dario Franchitti) car, who was in front of us there and touched him on the door and he just turned left and spun me down the front straight away. I don’t know what his beef is, but obviously NASCAR should probably fix it.

Montoya was penalized 2 laps for rough driving, dropping his final position to 32nd. His admission that the hit was intentional (which was pretty obvious on the replay) will probably cost Montoya some money, more points and probation for the remainder of the season. Montoya wasn’t going to make the Chase and is not broke so in my mind that biggest penalty is actually the probation. Why? It means Montoya won’t be able to partake in Facewashing with Harvick 2 at Watkins Glen this year. Comparing the Loudon incident with the quasi-fisticuffs from last made me realize something else. Montoya’s favorite expression, “I don’t appreciate that.” That’s getting worked into my everyday phrases. That or “My name is Juan Pablo Montoya, you killed my top 15, prepare to die.”

Some Random thoughts while avoiding the 90+ degree heat

• Bill Weber used “Strategery” when discussing pit stops. Even if it was for comedic value, it fizzled. Later he mentioned that Stewart could become the first driver to sweep the weekend and ended with a grumpy, “there’s a stat for ya’”. What’s wrong with stats? They never did anything to you. Maybe he was just sour today.

• Where was Roush? The fact that the TNT announcers called it a rebound when none of the five drivers were in the top ten is an indictment of how bad they were today.

• Casey Mears had a nice run before slipping at the end. In one sense I’m glad he didn’t score a surprising win because it spared us all headlines and nonsense about how he was more motivated this week. He still managed a top ten in back to back races for the first time this year. Watch out for Mears next weekend at Daytona. He’s good on restrictor plates and nearly won the race last year.

• By the way, Kurt Busch won the race.

• Michael Waltrip scored his first top five finish since 2005 (5th place at Pocono). It’s a huge boost not only for his effort to stay inside the top 35, but also for his sponsorship status with Napa.
  

  I’m not emotional about this, other than the fact to say it’s amazing that NAPA Auto Parts is still on my car after what we went through the last couple years. Just to do anything good for them, outside front row at Daytona, to have a finish like we did today, I just want to say thank you to them by doing well. That’s my goal, is to do good for them.

  Waltrip is often portrayed as a shill, but he really does get it. For all of his struggles in team ownership, he somehow still has large sponsors at least through this year, and he obviously realizes how fortunate he is. As an aside, Waltrip pitted two laps later than Kurt Busch and it would have been interesting to see how things would have ended without the rain stoppage.

• Question: Can you use “McMurray tried to drive through me” as a valid excuse for hitting the commitment cone on pit road?

For more racing news and opinion peep Racing Nation.

NASCAR’s Silly Season is kind of like a big game of Jenga. The year begins with everything in a solid block but then slowly a piece gets pulled from the bottom and moved to the top. After a while a lot of holes appear, the formation begins to sway until all it takes is removing one more piece and every block in the structure is affected. Right now the entire Jenga puzzle is teetering on a few major moves, none more important than what Tony Stewart decides to do in 2009. Once that decision is announced (my guess it’s already been made) the aftershock will affect at least 10 drivers.

Last year the pieces were more sequential. Dale Earnhardt Jr, clearly the top free agent in NASCAR, made his decision, then Kyle Busch moved to Gibbs, Mark Martin slid into the #8 car and JJ Yeley moved to Hall of Fame Racing. It was more like a draft where you took the best player left on the board. This year is much more complex because drivers are looking for slightly different things. Stewart does not need to upgrade, he’s already with the top Cup team. He is looking for a place with ownership possibilities. Mark Martin is rumored to be looking for one more shot a the title belt. Martin Truex Jr and Ryan Newman are looking for the best long term shot at winning races and championships. There is at least one new team, Richard Childress’ 4th team that should attract a top driver. This variety of goals makes it muddier than last year.

It really looks like Stewart is going to leave Gibbs Racing, which automatically opens up one of the elite rides in the sport. Unless Stewart goes to RCR’s 4th ride, he will take someone else’s job. If he becomes an owner, that could affect the other drivers in that company as well. Would he be able to attract other high profile free agent drivers to his new company? A lot depends on where Stewart goes. If he decides to take the best ride available, he would probably head to Hendrick Motorsports’ #5 car. Based on rumors, that would throw a wrench in Martin’s plans for a full time run in 2009 with Hendrick.

Whatever happens, Casey Mears is out of the #5 car. It looks like it’s true and isn’t a big surprise. Like his old teammate Jamie McMurray discovered when he joined Roush-Fenway, an upgrade to elite equipment doesn’t necessarily mean an upgrade in success. Mears had his best Cup season in 2007, but it simply is not good enough for what the Hendrick cars are capable of. Now, ironically, it looks like Mears will be competing with McMurray for the whatever second-tier options are available.

If Martin exits DEI, that leaves a huge void. Will the Army be willing to re-sign with DEI knowing that Aric Almirola can’t match Martin’s on-track success, merchandise sales or visibility? Martin Truex Jr is not signed and appears willing to see what else is available. If he leaves, then DEI would take a very big dive. Sure Paul Menard, Almirola and Smith are young, but that doesn’t equate to immense talent or success. DEI is also already struggling to fully sponsor four teams, and that’s including Menard’s essentially personal sponsorship. What happens if Army and Truex leave? It’s hard to see Bass Pro Shops wanting to hang around either.

If Martin is indeed planning on a one year run for the title that means the #5 car would then have another new driver in 2010 (likely Brad Keselowski or Landon Cassill). That’s four different drivers in four years. Is Hendrick willing to do that? Is a longtime sponsor like Kelloggs willing to do that? Would Martin really have a serious shot at a title run?

There will be a lot more people, sponsors and teams affected by what happens in the next two months. It’s a good thing this post isn’t printed on real paper because by next week when everything I just wrote proves false you would have to rip it up anyway.

Other Thoughts off the beaten path

The Euro 2008 tourney wraps up on Sunday. Germany plays Spain. Overall the tournament has been fantastic. Games have had dramatic late goals, great individual skill and a welcome absence of boring, defensive soccer. The final should be another good game and with the potential for rain in New England, do yourself a favor and work the “previous channel” button on your remote.

I haven’t seen any movies lately (it’s too nice outside), but I have taken a peak at the summer movies. Here’s a few recommendations.

Let’s start with a few questions for New Hampshire. Will this race be in Kentucky or Las Vegas next year? Will we see a tight contest with lots of battles for the lead? Will we see a rout like Clint Bowyer’s 6 second win last fall? I don’t have any idea what will happen with Bruton Smith’s personal game of track Monopoly. As far as the race goes, I will hope it’s as exciting as the Phoenix race this spring, but will be keeping a pillow on standby.

In fairness, Loudon is a fine track. It’s tight and flat like Phoenix but lacks some of the quirkiness. The leaders usually don’t check out, but it is very hard to pass. This of course often leads to frustration. Frustration leads to emotion manifested as aggression. Aggression leads to contact. Contact leads to more emotion which leads to helmet tossing. And helmet tossing always equals fun. As a bonus, this year’s race is 301 laps instead of the lame 300 laps like prior years.

What happened last year

Dave Blaney was a surprise pole winner, the first for Toyota, but faded after the first pit stop. Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Martin Truex Jr each took turns leading before Denny Hamlin grabbed the lead with a late two-tire stop and held on for his only 2007 win. Jeff Gordon made a late run, but ran out of time. Hamlin edged Gordon by 0.068 seconds, the closest Loudon finish ever.

Some dudes who like Loudon

• Tony Stewart owns the best driver rating (117.9) at Loudon. He has 2 wins, 10 top 5’s and 11 top 10’s in 18 career starts.

• Martin Truex Jr scored two top 5’s last year. He led 47 laps and also won the 2005 Busch race. He is good at the flat tracks and also tends to shine in the Northeast.

• Jeff Gordon has three wins, but none since 1998. He does have three straight top 3 finishes.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Kevin Harvick Flat tracks and the #29 car just fit well together. He won the 2006 fall race at Loudon and has led 264 laps in his Cup career.

Chump: Kasey Kahne The Chump is again a tough choice, with almost everyone in the top 12 capable of running in the top 5 or winning. Kahne only has one top 5 and Evernham has never been great at Loudon or Phoenix.

Sleeper: Aric Almirola It’s a big stretch, but Almirola will likely drive the same car that Mark Martin nearly won with at Phoenix and finished 3rd at Richmond. Almirola can obviously drive, but with such a sporadic schedule it’s a Fantasy risk.

Who Will Win

The way Tony Stewart has run this year, he is overdue. It would actually be a pretty good publicity stunt for Stewart to begin paying late fees to charity for being overdue on his victory celebration. He is always strong at Loudon and barring any tangles with Ryan Newman, is usually around at the end. I’m really tempted to take Dale Earnhardt Jr, who has done nearly everything at Loudon but win. It’s hard to call him a darkhorse, but watch out for Matt Kenseth. Like Earnhardt Jr, Kenseth has been successful at New Hampshire albeit sans victory.

Jeff Burton is getting a caterpillar for 2009. With AT&T’s sponsorship exemption expiring after 2008, Richard Childress Racing had to find a new sponsor for the #31 car. The answer came from the yellow and black colors of Caterpillar. Given Burton’s recent success and personality that must have been a tough sell. Interestingly it was his brother Ward that won the 2002 Daytona 500 with a CAT sponsored Bill Davis Car.

Of course what is good for RCR is bad news for another team, in this case Bill Davis. Caterpillar had been with the fledging BDR team since 1999. They stuck with the organization through some very lean years first when they lost manufacturer support in 2004 and then when the team completely stumbled out of the blocks with Toyota last year. Now Caterpillar is moving to a team that is more likely to get the brand back in the spotlight. It’s hard to fault CAT for making a wise business move, but it’s also easy to sympathize with BDR. It’s always tough to lose a seven or eight-digit sponsor, but it’s even tougher to absorb when the sponsor moves to a rival team. It’s just the latest example of the elite Cup teams getting richer. Whether it’s a sponsorship deal or a top driver switching teams, the sport is becoming increasingly top heavy.

In the past year, longstanding Cup sponsors have dumped smaller teams for larger, more successful teams. CAT joins Budweiser, M&M’s and General Mills as longtime Cup sponsors to switch teams within the last year. Sponsors moving from one team to another is not a new thing in NASCAR, but it hasn’t been seen as much in recent years that were filled with expansion and splendor. In the last five years many teams were able to attract new companies to NASCAR as the sport transitioned from tobacco, automotive and alcohol into technology, financial institutes and other new markets. Even when a company got out of the sport, others were willing to jump in as replacements. With an economic slowdown/recession, sponsorship dollars are not flowing as freely. That means increased competition for the sponsors that do stay in the sport.

While sponsors have changed teams before, the trend is apparently accelerating. It’s no longer good enough to simply have exposure in the sport. Companies now want to be on the hood of cars that are leading laps, challenging for wins and most of all securing spots in the Chase. The problem is that there are only 12 Chase spots and usually only 10-15 drivers win a race each year. For the teams like RCR, Joe Gibbs, Roush-Fenway and Hendrick, it’s pretty easy to list your credentials and justify a $10 million sponsorship, when compared with Petty Enterprises who hasn’t won a race in almost ten years. What sponsor wouldn’t choose one the top tier teams?

This is not to say there is an answer to this or it can be stopped. Every team in NASCAR is an independent contractor. It’s hard to see what NASCAR can or should do to help, but it’s clear that this is a problem that will only get worse. Even if the Car of Tomorrow could completely level the playing field, without funding for the teams it won’t matter. The same elite teams will continue to win the majority of the races and championships and control the largest pieces of the revenue pie.

What do you think? Can something be done to help the “havenots”? Should something be done or is it just a case of economics?

Prior to the 2008 season I made a list of six things that would happen this season. After 15 races we can already begin drawing conclusions about some of the predictions. Some have been right on, some have been off and some are still unknown. Overall, I’m surprised how accurate they were (this is the same guy that said Kurt Busch would win at Sonoma).

• Jeff Gordon will barely make the Chase

  What I said,
  

  Gordon is strong at enough tracks to make the Chase, especially a field of 12, but if it’s more of a struggle than normal look no further than DNF’s and how he runs at intermediate tracks.

  Gordon ran very well in the first handful of races but didn’t get the deserved finishes. Since Atlanta, however, it’s been a mixed bag for the #24 team. Gordon has been strong at traditionally comfortable tracks like Martinsville and Darlington. At other intermediate tracks like Atlanta, Texas, Charlotte and Michigan the #24 has been a mess. Gordon is still nabbing enough strong finishes from strategy to ensure he’s in position to make the Chase, but he hasn’t won a race and isn’t really close to winning one. His current position in the standings masks some of the problems with the #24 and at this point it’s clear they are a long ways from challenging for a championship.

• Regan Smith will win Rookie of the Year

  What I said
  

  He does a good job of keeping the car on the track. DEI also provides the top equipment among the companies fielding rookies in 2008. The other rookie candidates will all take more time to adjust to stock cars, not to mention racing at the Cup level. 2008 will also mark only the second season since 2000 that a rookie doesn’t win a race.

  Smith is certainly not lighting the Cup scene on fire, but despite a rough start he is finishing races. He has five finishes of 21st or better. The Rookie of the Year criteria is based on the best 17 races for each driver, so the race is far from over. Sam Hornish Jr is his closest competitor and is showing great progress in his stock car transition.

• Sonoma and Watkins Glen will be the most exciting, and competitive races of the year.

  What I said
  

  With the infusion of open wheel drivers, the starting field could feature a dream lineup of top road course drivers and top stock car drivers. You have a lot of drivers that could light up the serpentine courses (and their tires). The heavier CoT can also accommodate more bumping without the cars losing control. That means beating, banging, flipping (birds, not cars), shouting, shoving, and for fans excitement.

  There was beating and banging and some weren’t happy, but sadly the leader was able to get away easily (granted the leader stayed on track). Watkins Glen still offers hope for some serious fireworks.

• Toyota will win 6 races.

  What I said
  

  At first glance that number sounds like a lot, but think about it. Gibbs alone could approach the 6 win total. Further down, Brian Vickers and Dave Blaney both had several good wins in 2007 despite the weak Camry engine. It’s not crazy to think either driver could find victory lane.

  Check this one off the list. After 15 races, it’s pretty clear that this prediction was a little tame. The addition of Gibbs transformed Toyota’s engine package into one of the strongest in the sport. As for Vickers, he has three top fives and four top tens. He is coming very close to finding Victory Lane.

• Kyle Busch will be Gibbs’ most successful driver.

  What I said
  

  Busch’s move to Gibbs doesn’t change that the fact that he will win a Cup championship. It probably won’t happen this year, but he is excellent at nearly every type of track. His 97.8 driver rating was 5th best and in his fourth Cup season, he is hitting his stride. This isn’t a knock on Tony Stewart, who should have a great year, it’s just a statement of how good Kyle Busch will be in 2008.

  Tony Stewart is still poised for a big summer, but it’s clear that the #18 car is fully operational. Busch has already won 5 races (more than his career total entering 2008), leads the points race and looks capable of winning almost every week, including a championship this year. He has also won 4 Nationwide and 2 Truck races and pulled two triple-headers this year. Busch is still a lightning rod for controversy but it’s hard to ignore the results.

• A team will alter their full schedule plans

  What I said
  

  Now the most likely teams look like BAM, Furniture Row, and Front Row motorsports. They are each already on shoestring budgets, but the bigger teams are not immune either. Haas-CNC, Yates and BDR all face sponsorship hurdles and that might result in skipping a few races during the season.

  Bill Davis Racing shut down the #27 car earlier this season. While most other cars appear safe for the season, several still remain unsponsored. NASCAR is feeling the effects of the recession, and it’s hard to see teams willing to keep paying the bills out of their own pockets for too long.

Apologies for the lack of posting the last two days. I’ve been on vacation and believe it or not, I found a place that has no wi-fi. I’ll be back on the grid tomorrow morning for more words. In the meantime, be sure to check out One Bad Wheel and From the Marbles for some solid content. In fact, be sure to check out the various sites on the blogroll for some hot NASCAR action.